New Transit Boundary yields ST2 win in Pierce County

Roughly 100 voting precincts were removed from the Pierce Transit service boundary, according to data obtained via public disclosure request filed last week.  I say roughly because some precincts have so few voters that their data is obscured for voter privacy purposes, so their numbers are largely minimal.

This list of precincts, spanning the outer periphery of the Pierce Transit boundary, include some of those that have been the most hostile to public transportation votes over the last ten years.  According to previous analysis of election data from TacomaTomorrow, 100 precincts is the minimum needed to allow for Pierce Transit to go back to the ballot and have a chance at winning (Pierce Transit Boundary includes 163 Transit-Hostile Precincts 8-22-2011).

I crunched the numbers through the last three elections - Roads and Transit (2007), Sound Transit 2 (2008) and Pierce Transit Proposition 1 (2011).  I was able to determine that Roads and Transit would have still failed miserably, Proposition 1 would have failed as well, but only by ~1,000 votes instead of~11,000, and Sound Transit 2 would have come out ahead in Pierce County by ~2,500 votes.  (Recall that ST2 failed by about 5,000 votes in Pierce County, while passing easily in King and Snohomish Counties.)  In general, the new boundary has a net gain of 10,000 votes in favor of transit.  Pierce Transit still loses in unincorporated Pierce County by about 3,000 votes, but includes precincts that are much less toxic than before.

I've made the list of the precincts available via this Google Doc.  I'm starting to play around with MySQL a little bit, so I've posted the output of the Prop 1 query as well.  Over the next few weeks, I'll be seeking to identify various demographic traits and trends of the voters in the new boundary.  I'll put in a request to the Auditor this week for a voter extract.

Tacoma's Pacific Ave will reopen months ahead of schedule

This just in from Sound Transit:

Great news! Pacific Avenue will reopen on March 19, two and a half months ahead of the time allotted to complete this phase of work. MidMountain crews have been working hard to complete the second of three construction phases. This included installing new utilities, excavating and regrading Pacific Avenue, installing new streets and sidewalks, building new walls, installing steel for the Pacific Avenue rail bridge and beginning work on the rail alignment from South C to M streets and the reconfiguration of South C Street. 

...The goal is to complete construction this summer, engage in operations testing and open Sounder service to South Tacoma and Lakewood late this year.

Rendering of Pacific Avenue after D-M Sounder Completion later this year.

Discussion:
This is great news for Pierce Transit Routes 1 and 53 as well as Intercity Transit Route 603, which have been on detour since construction began last year.

Once this project is completed there will be new opportunities for bus routing thanks to the new configuration of Pacific Avenue.  In this area there will be a more direct connection between South Tacoma Way and Tacoma Dome Station via S. 26th St., now under construction.  This should help support the development of Bus Rapid Transit on Pacific Avenue linking Downtown Tacoma, Tacoma Dome Station, the South End of Tacoma and Parkland.  Also, this new configuration should make it possible to run direct routing along South Tacoma Way between the Tacoma Mall and the Tacoma Dome.

Tacoma Link update: Extension limited to $150m project cost

CH2M Hill Inc. was selected by Sound Transit to for the Tacoma Link Alternatives Analysis

The Capital Committee of the Sound Transit Board approved the following contract on March 8th - ironically, the same day that the Pierce Transit Contraction was approved by the PTIC.  

Motion No. M2012-13: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute a contract with CH2M HILL Inc., to provide alternatives analysis services for the Tacoma Link Expansion project in the amount of $998,663 with a 10% contingency of $99,866 for a total authorized contract amount not to exceed $1,098,529

Here's the staff report on the contract:

• The scope of work includes three phases. The first phase is the preparation of the alternatives analysis. This work is expected to take 12 months to complete.
  
• The second and third phases are conceptual engineering/Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) and preliminary engineering/Final EIS. Phases two and three were included in the RFP but are not in the scope and contract amount authorized by this action.
  
• The total lifetime budget for this project, to be accomplished with funding contributed by other public and/or private entities, is assumed to be $150 million with a maximum contribution of $79 million (in 2011 dollars) from Sound Transit. This action, the AA phase of the project, represents 0.73% of the assumed total lifetime budget.
  
• Alternatives to be studied in this phase of the project will be financially constrained by the $150 million total lifetime budget.

Based upon criteria set by the AA Contract, the Green Line along S. 19th St. is out.

Commentary

The $150 million cap, with a maximum contribution of $79m in 2011 eliminates a number of possible routing options that would have been under consideration that were presented as options in the 2010 City of Tacoma Streetcar Stakeholders Group Final Report (February 2011). 

However, those alignments excluded are those that didn't rate as highly.  6th Avenue (Purple) and Martin Luther King Jr. Way still (Orange) fall under this price cap, as well as a shorter extension to the East Side of Tacoma (Red)  that would not reach the 72nd and Portland transit center.  

Recall that the North End extension to Proctor/UPS didn't score highly enough to rank within the top three alignments.  Practically all of the critical alignments will probably include an extension with stations at Tacoma General Hospital and Stadium High School via Stadium Way.

Looking Forward

I'll be in contact with Sound Transit representatives to get a better picture of when the kickoff will happen and how you can be involved.  Hopefully we can get this study knocked out in a year and have our alignment selected shortly thereafter.  

I don't expect the alignment will be as contentious as was in Bellevue.  However, whatever the extension, I say this with a degree of frustration that this work should also in-effect make it easier to extend Tacoma Link even further within the next five to ten years.  The way things are going, the best we can hope for is an opening of the extension sometime in 2016.

PT Board will add Lauren Walker, discuss Budget Monday

Lauren Walker

On Monday, Pierce Transit will welcome Tacoma City Councilmember Lauren Walker (representing Hilltop and Central Tacoma) to the Board of Directors.  The Board will hear an update on the CNG fueling station repairs, take action on the sale of old CNG coaches, will hear from PT CEO Lynne Griffith about the June service change, and will get a Sound Transit update from ST Board Members Marilyn Strickland (Mayor of Tacoma) and Pat McCarthy (Pierce County Executive and ST Board Chair).

With the new transit boundary map now adopted by the PTIC, the clock starts ticking about what to do about the new budget hole that will be created because of the lost revenue from the departing cities.  Without a new ballot measure, it will mean additional reductions in service throughout the remaining service area - on top of the 42% in total cuts since 2007.  Pierce Transit still retains 0.3% of its sales tax authority due to the failure of Proposition 1 in February 2011.

As of this writing, the local option public transit funding bill (SB 6582) is still up in the air, but could represent an opportunity for Pierce Transit to reestablish a 1% motor vehicle excise tax as part of their funding mix.  Additional analysis will be necessary to determine what that might represent in terms of dollars for the new Pierce Transit boundary.  If the bill does pass the legislature and the governor signs it, it would be foolish for the Board to not take the opportunity to ask for a more stable funding source from the voters.

Contact your representatives on the PT Board to let them know that you want them to seek full funding as soon as possible.  The PTIC gave us a gift of a fighting chance at the ballot box in November.  It would be a tragedy to see Pierce Transit lose this opportunity to rise up out of the ashes.

More info: Pierce Transit Board Packet March 12, 2012

Here's a look at some upcoming post topics:

• New PTBA voting and demographic characteristics
• Budget increase and Start Date for Tacoma Link Alternatives Analysis
• The case for a Tacoma Transit Master Plan

Pierce Transit Contraction adopted Unanimously

The Public Transit Improvement Conference, about 15 minutes before showtime.

The new boundary for Pierce Transit was adopted unanimously tonight.   After a round of speakers spanning bicycle and transit advocates, business leaders, labor, and even a retired driver, the Public Transit Improvement Conference deliberated for a short time and then moved to adopt the new boundary.

A few of the people who came to speak who weren't necessarily against the boundary, sought to try to spare those riders on Shuttle service from being stranded in their homes.  Mayors Enslow and Johnson of Sumner and Bonney Lake warmly spoke of partnering to create a new transit system to service their jurisdictions in East Pierce County.  So those transit-bound outside the boundary will not be without transport if they are successful.

Some of the most notable comments from tonight were not from the audience, but from the public officials.  Pierce County Councilmember Rick Talbert encouraged everyone there to stress with the people they know that:

Pierce County Councilmember Rick Talbert (D)

"...even if you never set foot on a bus, transit is a benefit to you somehow - whether it's your sister, or son or mother.  We have not made a convincing argument to people who drive their cars that transit is worth those extra six-tenths of a percent."

One of the points during the meeting where I said "ouch," was when a retired driver, Don McKnight, told the Conference:

"I'm here to speak for the riders.  ... This is the worst it's ever been.  Even in 1980 we ran buses till midnight.  ... We need to pass this map."

So it's true.  We did hit bottom.  Service has contracted a full 42% since 2007 (source: Pierce Transit Report to the Community 2011).  And now that the boundary is contracted, the only direction we have to go is up.  It's about time.

For all you political process people, understand that the map is by and large now adopted, because without being overturned by the County Council, it stands.  It is unlikely that the County Council will overturn it due to the unanimous decision by the cities to adopt the map as designed. If they did, that would have to be within the next 30 days. Cities have 60 days to withdraw from the boundary if they are in and wish to leave.  If there are no objections by the County Council, the map will be sent to the County Auditor for elections and to Department of Revenue for their modifications.

Meet the new Pierce Transit boundary.  Analysis on voting prospects will follow.

Thank you to all of the people who wrote in via email or followed on Twitter.  Thank you to the Seattle Transit Blog, for your timely post to get the word out.  Thank you to Andrew Austin at the Transportation Choices Coalition and Patti Sutton with Downtown on the Go and Liz Kaster and Jane Moore with the Washington Coalition to Promote Physical Activity and Bliss Moore with the Sustainable Tacoma Commission and all of the others who spoke.  I want to especially thank the PTIC staff for their stellar work.  Without their efforts, we would have never got this far.

Thank you all.  Thank you.  Thank you.  Thank you all and goodnight.  I'm going to go have a drink.

Councils: Tacoma in, Bonney Lake out

The current Pierce Transit Service Area

The draft map hasn’t been passed out of the Public Transit Improvement Conference yet - hopefully that’s this Thursday, but the following cities have already passed resolutions indicating that they are either in or out.

Cities that are in:

• Tacoma, passed unanimously yesterday, via Exit133
• Puyallup, also unanimously on Feb 29th, via Puyallup Herald
• University Place, passed Feb 21, via City of University Place
• Steilacoom

Cities that are out:

• Bonney Lake, resolution passed yesterday unanimously, via City of Bonney Lake
• Sumner, Jan 23 by Mayor Enslow, via Puyallup Herald
• Also Dupont, Buckley, Graham, Key Peninsula, etc.

Several posts and emails have gone out since the last post from the Transportation Choices Coalition (PASS THE MAP), Transportation for Washington (Pierce Transit’s future is in your hands), and the Seattle Transit Blog (Pierce Transit Contraction Moving Forward).  The momentum is in the right direction to pass the map out of the PTIC tomorrow.



Additionally, we have an update from staff that we can remove land from the PTIC map delineation at this Thursday’s meeting without needing to go to another public hearing, however, adding new land back into the map would require another hearing.  That means that the PTIC could vote tomorrow to remove Auburn from the map, which would be better conditions for a November vote.


If you can't make it, show your support for the map by sending a message to the PTIC.

Also, Follow TacomaTransit and SaveOurBuses on Twitter tomorrow.


I’ll be attending the public hearing on the map and tweeting at 6pm at PT HQ.  

Draft Transit Boundary is Ready for Cities, Pierce County

Public Transit Improvement Conference - Boundary Revision Timeline

"...Pierce Transit should provide public transportation services to Pierce County areas         where the services are best utilized and supported" 

-Pierce Transit Board Resolution 11-027, calling together the PTIC

The overriding purpose of the Public Transit Improvement Conference (PTIC) is to craft a map that will enable the restoration of service that is on parity with that of the rest of the Puget Sound.

To do this, it is critical that the Conference completes their portion of work that modifies the Pierce Transit boundary with enough time to allow Pierce Transit to offer a ballot proposition for the November presidential election.

Anything that delays that process (like additional weeks of public hearings from map changes) means that Pierce Transit will likely miss its window of opportunity to restore service.  If that weren’t pressing enough, since sales tax revenues have been continuing to decline, without going to the ballot, additional cuts to service are in store.  I can tell you as a regular rider that 40% in service cuts over the last four years is quite enough, thanks.

The Board set the bar for what the map should look like in their resolution. This is how I read their requirements:

• It should exclude areas that cannot be effectively served by public transit.
• It should exclude areas where the majority of the population has demonstrated that they will not pay more taxes to sustain and/or improve service.
• It should be able to raise enough sales taxes within said boundary to support the system.

Thankfully, the draft map going to public hearing this month meets the bar.  It’s a more compact service area that is a better measure of the Urban Growth Area than Pierce County’s definition.  It is serviceable at a lower cost per rider and will guide the agency towards being able to support car-free and car-lite lifestyles.  Losing outlying areas in Dupont, the Key Peninsula, Sumner, Bonney Lake, Orting, Buckley and South Hill is enough to help PT win in November. Additionally, there are enough sales taxes in Tacoma, Lakewood, Puyallup, Fife, etc. to keep Pierce Transit afloat after a ballot measure.  


After the public hearing process, if no changes are made, it gets submitted to the county and cities to vet the question of whether they want in or out. It effectively starts a clock that ensures that we can make it to the ballot in November. The map is ready to be vetted by the County Council and the cities of Pierce County.

Smaller Pierce Transit map viable, promising

The Pierce Transit boundary conference is underway.  The first meeting was held last Friday at the Puyallup Public Library.  Derek Young, the representative for Gig Harbor, was elected as chair of the conference.

The first mention of what happened was from Derek himself via his blog Public Record.  Kudos to him for communication with the public.  He included a press release, a map of a draft of the new proposed boundary, and a link to the conference webpage.

If only the Pierce County Urban Growth Boundary looked like this.

As hoped, the new boundary draft removes unincorporated portions of the Key Peninsula, Mid-County, Graham, and parts of East Pierce County - including Buckley, Bonney Lake, and Orting.  It also removes the City of Dupont, which is a new feature.  Pierce Transit could have a fighting chance at the ballot box if the service boundary were redrawn in this manner.

As of this writing I haven't been able to acquire a list of precincts this map removes from the existing boundary, which is necessary to do any vote projections, but at first glance it appears that it's workable.  A minimum of 100 transit-hostile precincts have to go to make the map viable.  

If you'd like to attend the next meeting or submit comments regarding the process, the press release concludes:

The next meeting will be held Friday, January 20, 2012 at 9:00am located at Clover Park Technical College, 4500 Steilacoom Blvd, Lakewood WA, 98499, Building 3, Rotunda Room.   Please visit www.piercetransit.org/ptic.htm for information regarding the Public Transportation Improvement Conference including a map the preliminary delineations, meeting materials and how to make comments to the Conference.

I will be working with community partners throughout the county and the region to support boundary revision that will help to secure the viability of public transit in Pierce County and the South Puget Sound.